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Archive for December, 2009

The Final Week & Happy New Year

December 21, 2009 Leave a comment

There could be a Santa Claus rally upon us in the stock market.

Maybe, maybe not.

Volatility still rules the financial markets so don’t believe anybody’s claim that there’s a “strong” chance of a blissful rally to end out the year.

However, there could definitely be one that puts a giant smile on your face. Just, do me a favor and do your homework before listening to the experts.

Stocks that look jolly between now and into the beginning of 2010.

PEP – PepsiCo

12/18/09 – $59.29/share

ROE (return on equity) – 33.17% in 2009

If it drops below $58, buy this baby. It should push itself upward in the first quarter of 2010 and definitely for Q2 after all the college football bowl games and NFL playoffs and Super Bowl are played out. Sales of all soft drinks usually spike around this time of year.

ADY – American Dairy, Inc.

12/18/09 – $20.34/share

ROE – 16.42% in 2009

This company has good numbers and seems ready to jump from its current price due to the high probability that milk will be more expensive in the first half of 2010. I think it’s a good commodity play in terms of stocks and higher milk prices.

JEC – Jacobs Engineering Group

12/18/2009 – 37.74/share

ROE – 16.42% in 2009

While this is a riskier bet, I like JEC a lot going into 2010 and beyond. However, I’m predicting a lot more government infrastructure projects to begin which is where Jacobs should get a healthy load of work from government contracts. Some would say this industry is hazardous for investors but I say JEC is undervalued and ripe for the taking.

HQS – HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries, Inc.

12/18/09 – $6.42/share

ROE – 13.84

I must admit this stock is frustrating for me, personally. I’ve purchased HQS at close to $9/share before and had to sell when it dropped. I will never recommend this stock again above $8 but at $6.50 with good books, it’s hard to pass on. Purely speculative here but I’m sticking with the tilapia farmers and feeling optimistic about the stock moving to the $8-9 range within a few months.

*Author owns shares of ADY and JEC but not PEP or HQS.

Today Against Tomorrow

December 20, 2009 1 comment

So, was the sky really falling?

I ask because last November, it appeared like nothing would ever get better. Great Depression: The Sequel was one of the worst bogeymen this nation, and the entire world, had ever seen. It scared us then, making us piss in our pants. Today, we’re still scared although we’re not wetting our pants quite as bad anymore.

Today, the market will never recover ever, ever again. Not in a million years.

Tomorrow, it jumps up 200 points.

Today, the swine flu is a pandemic.

EVERYBODY LOCK YOUR DOORS WASH YOUR HANDS A GAZILLION TIMES A DAY

Tomorrow, the swine flu has infected many people who don’t even have to go to the doctor to treat it.

Today, we have no healthcare.

Tomorrow, universal healthcare?

Was The Sky Really Falling?

December 19, 2009 Leave a comment

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) – 10385.48

Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) – 1162

Nasdaq Composite (NAS) – 2034.56

Any idea where those numbers come from? Those were the market numbers exactly five years ago on November 10. Is it any wonder that these numbers are just a little bit higher than November 10, 2009’s market finish. Why am I referencing market numbers from five years ago? At that time, these numbers were good. These days, the numbers aren’t necessarily good, they’re generally just up for debate.

Because the Dow Jones has peaked above 14000 in 2007, today’s (12/18/09) finish of 10328 is pretty mild. But if you look at where the market was ten months ago, today’s number is pretty rosy. Exactly one year ago today, the sky was falling on the world. America was screwed, the market crashed, George Dubya Bush was destroying the galaxy and the American people were paying for it.

Was the sky really falling?